One Map: Why Western industrial suppliers should now plan the Middle East and Africa as one market

Why the Middle East and Africa should be planned as one market

In ISI's experience, Western industrial companies usually run the Middle East and Africa as two territories: a Gulf hub that covers the region, and a separate, thinner effort in Africa. We recommend planning them as one market, because the buyer, the financier and the site of a project are increasingly in different countries of the region. Gulf state companies hold stakes in North African upstream acreage: QatarEnergy won blocks in Libya with Eni and in Algeria with TotalEnergies [1][2]. Saudi Aramco, Mubadala, Kuwaiti investors and QatarEnergy together own half of the Egyptian pipeline company that now carries Saudi crude to the Mediterranean [3][4]. Rovuma LNG in Mozambique is run by a US operator, which has placed pre-investment contracts with suppliers in Europe, the United States and Asia [5]. In ISI's assessment, a supplier that plans the Gulf and Africa separately is likely to miss these links.

The conflict involving Iran, which began on 28 February 2026, has strengthened these links [6]. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is a fraction of pre-war levels [7]. Part of the oil and freight that used to pass through it now moves through Oman's ports and Egypt's pipeline and canal [4][8][9], and buyers of Qatari LNG have turned to other suppliers, including Nigeria [10]. Several of the African projects in this report began before the conflict. In ISI's assessment, the conflict has made them more valuable to buyers, because they avoid the Strait.

Five findings

1. Gulf national oil companies continue to spend on routes around the Strait. GCC contract awards fell in the first quarter of 2026 and dropped sharply by May [11][12], and giga-projects have been scaled back [13]. ADNOC has $55 billion of awards planned over three years from May 2026 [14], and Gulf producers are investing in pipelines and tankers that avoid the Strait [15][16].
2. North Africa is positioned to supply more of Europe's energy. Algeria and Libya have reopened upstream licensing to international companies, and loadings at Egypt's Sidi Kerir terminal more than doubled between July and early August [1][2][4].
3. Sub-Saharan Africa's large projects are moving. Nigeria has approved more than $57 billion of field development plans since 2024 [17], Mozambique LNG restarted in January 2026 [18], and ExxonMobil has awarded $1.1 billion of pre-investment contracts for Rovuma LNG [5].
4. Power, mining, infrastructure, agribusiness and manufacturing are affected as well. About 30 percent of global fertilizer trade normally passes through Hormuz [19]. Africa imported 10 gigawatts of solar equipment from China in March 2026 [20], and Oman's Sohar port handled 52 percent more cargo in the first half of the year [8].
5. Winning funded work depends on execution. Funding is available from national oil companies, development banks and government agencies [14][21]. In ISI's experience, suppliers lose bids on vendor registration, local content, contract terms, guarantees and currency.

Figure 1. One map: disrupted routes, the routes and ports gaining traffic, and the markets gaining activity.

Where projects are decided, financed and built

1. The Gulf: national oil companies continue to spend on routes around the Strait

What has changed

Shipping. In mid-September, Hormuz transits averaged 14 vessels a day over ten days, compared with more than 100 a day before the conflict. War-risk insurance rose from about 0.25 percent of hull value to between 3 and 10 percent per transit [7].

Security of bypass routes. Houthi forces declared a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia on 20 July and struck a Saudi tanker near Yanbu on 24 August [24][25]. Drone attacks on 10 and 11 September shut the East-West pipeline, which had been carrying 4 to 5 million barrels per day to the Red Sea [26]. Aramco began a partial restart on 23 September, with full restoration expected to take up to six to eight weeks, according to sources cited by Reuters [27].

Duration. In its September Oil Market Report, the IEA dropped its expectation that the Strait would reopen before the end of 2026 [28]. Brent closed at $107.82 per barrel on 14 September [7].

Project awards. GCC contract awards in the first quarter were $61.2 billion, down 9.7 percent year on year [11]. Monthly awards fell from an average of $32 billion to $17 billion in May. Saudi Arabia was the exception, with awards from January to July up nearly 60 percent [12].

Budgets. Saudi Arabia budgeted a 2026 deficit of about $44 billion [29], and NEOM has paused work on The Line until after 2030 [13]. Qatar's government spending fell about 20 percent year on year in the second quarter [30]. GCC governments and companies issued $116.8 billion of bonds and sukuk in the first half, up 14 percent [31].

Where the money is still going

Gulf national oil companies are funding projects that keep exports moving without the Strait. In ISI's assessment, projects that need the approval of only one government are less exposed to the delays that affect multi-country corridors, although they remain exposed to attack.

What this means for you

Keep your Gulf relationships active, because Gulf state companies hold stakes in projects across North Africa and beyond. Move sales effort from real estate and giga-project packages toward national oil company work on pipelines, storage, terminals, marine services and asset protection, where awards are continuing. Because the IEA no longer expects the Strait to reopen in 2026, and ADNOC's award program runs for three years from May 2026, ISI expects these conditions to continue into 2027. Build them into your 2027 budget.

2. The Mediterranean edge: North Africa is positioned to supply more of Europe's energy

QatarEnergy declared force majeure in March 2026 and has extended it into November. Qatar shipped 18 LNG cargoes in the first six months of the conflict, compared with 509 in the same period a year earlier. Europe has drawn on storage, while the United States, Canada, Nigeria and Malaysia have raised supply [10]. Pipeline gas from Algeria and Libya reaches Italy and Spain without passing a Gulf chokepoint, which in ISI's view raises its value to European buyers.

Algeria

Algeria Bid Round 2024, awarded in June 2025, placed five of six blocks with Eni and PTTEP, TotalEnergies and QatarEnergy, Sinopec, ZPEC and Zangas-Filada. The regulator expects about $1 billion of exploration spending and up to 20 billion cubic meters a year of new gas within three years, about 40 percent of current exports [2].

Algeria Bid Round 2026 offers seven blocks. Bids are due on 26 November 2026 and contracts are to be signed by 31 January 2027 [34], which points to further exploration service and equipment demand from 2027.

Since 1 August 2026, a defined list of imported services, including engineering studies, consulting and software, requires prior authorization under Algeria's Provisional Import Programme [35].

Libya

On 11 February 2026 the National Oil Corporation announced the results of its first public bid round in 17 years. Five of 20 blocks were awarded, to Eni with QatarEnergy, Repsol with TPAO and MOL, Chevron, and Aiteo of Nigeria [36]. The NOC links the round to its aim of doubling crude output [1].

Egypt

Egypt's SUMED pipeline runs from Ain Sokhna on the Red Sea to Sidi Kerir on the Mediterranean and is owned by Egyptian, Saudi, Emirati, Kuwaiti and Qatari shareholders [3]. Egypt offered it to Saudi Arabia as a bypass in March 2026 [37]. Loadings at Sidi Kerir rose from about 1 million barrels per day in July to about 2.3 million in early August, mainly Saudi crude [4].

The Houthi blockade declared in July is directed at Saudi Arabia [24], and some container lines have returned to the Suez route. Suez Canal transits rose 27 percent year on year in August 2026, and revenue rose 57 percent to $567 million [9].

What this means for you

Most of the new licensees in Algeria and Libya are international operators that run their own vendor lists. You should be in contact with their procurement teams now, while exploration work programs are being scoped. In Egypt, higher throughput at SUMED, Sidi Kerir and the Suez Canal increases demand for maintenance, metering, pumping, storage and port equipment.

3. The Atlantic and Indian Ocean edges

Nigeria

The upstream regulator (NUPRC) has approved more than $57 billion of field development plans since 2024, with at least 22 offshore projects expected to start production by 2030 and a national target of 3 million barrels per day [17].

Nigeria is one of the suppliers that raised LNG output to replace lost Qatari volumes [10]. In March 2026 the Central Bank of Nigeria allowed international oil companies to repatriate 100 percent of their export proceeds, reversing a 2024 restriction [38].

Mozambique

TotalEnergies announced a full restart of Mozambique LNG in January 2026 [18]. The project has two onshore trains with a capacity of 13 million tonnes per year and a cost of $20.5 billion [39].

ExxonMobil lifted force majeure on Rovuma LNG (18 million tonnes per year, about $30 billion) in November 2025 [39]. In August 2026 it awarded $1.1 billion of pre-investment contracts for long-lead equipment, and a final investment decision is expected in 2026 [5]. Saipem and Jan De Nul signed a letter of intent for preliminary engineering on the offshore scope on 10 September, with the main contract subject to that decision [22].

The Lobito Corridor

An 830 km rail project will link Zambia's Copperbelt to the Atlantic port of Lobito in Angola. It has more than $4 billion committed, including $500 million from the Africa Finance Corporation, $200 million from the African Development Bank and about $320 million from Italy's CDP, with support from the US DFC and the EU. Financial close is targeted for 2027, and the route aims to cut cargo transit time from 16 days to 7 [23].

What this means for you

In Mozambique, contact ExxonMobil's Rovuma procurement team and the contractors named above this quarter, because long-lead packages are being placed before the final investment decision. In Nigeria, confirm how Nigerian Content rules apply to your scope before you bid, because they determine whether you need a local partner, local assembly or both [40].

4. Beyond energy: what the new map means for other industrial sectors

The disruption started in energy shipping. Its effects now extend to the other sectors that Western industrial suppliers serve in the region.

Agribusiness and food

About 30 percent of global fertilizer trade normally passes through the Strait of Hormuz, according to the FAO [19]. Gulf countries supplied 36 percent of global urea exports and 29 percent of ammonia exports in 2023 to 2025 [41].

Much of Africa depends on imported fertilizer. African fertilizer use fell 25 percent after the 2022 supply shock that followed the invasion of Ukraine [41], and the FAO has warned that a prolonged blockade would affect farmers and crop yields in the following season [19].

The UAE imports 85 to 90 percent of its food [42], and the FAO has named Qatar and the UAE as large food importers under pressure [19]. In ISI's assessment, Gulf buyers will look for additional storage, cold chain capacity and alternative supply routes.

Power

Higher fuel prices have increased demand for solar. Africa imported 10 gigawatts of solar equipment from China in March 2026, 176 percent more than in February, and Nigeria, Kenya and Ethiopia each imported more than 1 gigawatt in a single month for the first time [20].

Solar modules come mainly from China. In ISI's assessment, the openings for Western suppliers are in inverters, grid connection, storage, protection equipment and operations and maintenance, especially on projects financed by development banks.

The World Bank reports that Mission 300, run with the African Development Bank, has connected more than 50 million people, with nearly $15 billion committed by the two banks [43]. The program began before the conflict and is a financing channel for grid, generation and storage equipment.

Critical minerals and mining

The Democratic Republic of Congo formed a task force on 11 September 2026 to speed up delivery of its strategic minerals partnership with the United States, signed in December 2025 [44]. Together with the Lobito Corridor, in ISI's assessment this gives Western mining equipment and services companies a policy-backed route into the Copperbelt [23].

Infrastructure and logistics

Ports outside the Gulf are handling more cargo. In the first half of 2026, Oman's Sohar port handled 52 million tonnes, up 52 percent, and Salalah handled 2.33 million TEU, up 15 percent [8]. Suez Canal traffic in August was 27 percent above the level of a year earlier [9].

Industrial manufacturing

Morocco produced nearly 1 million vehicles in 2025 and plans to double production by 2030. Tanger Med, 14 km from the European coast, handled 11.1 million TEU and 527,000 vehicles in 2025 [45]. In ISI's assessment, for suppliers serving both Europe and West Africa, Morocco is a candidate location for assembly, stock and service, away from the disrupted Gulf routes.

5. Government tools that lower your risk

US DFC. Congress reauthorized the US International Development Finance Corporation through December 2031 and raised its exposure cap from $60 billion to $205 billion. It also created a $5 billion equity fund, which still requires appropriations [21]. DFC provides debt, guarantees and political risk insurance for projects with US involvement in many African markets.

AGOA. The African Growth and Opportunity Act was extended on 2 September 2026 to 31 December 2028 [46]. US companies sourcing from or assembling in eligible African countries can plan on duty-free access through that date.

European tools. European exporters can use their national export credit agencies, such as UK Export Finance, SACE in Italy and Bpifrance, for buyer credit and insurance [47]. The EU is among the backers of the Lobito Corridor [23].

6. The execution gap: where suppliers lose funded work

Africa needs an estimated $130 billion to $170 billion of infrastructure investment a year and receives about $80 billion [48]. Between a funded project and a paid invoice sit procurement steps that Western suppliers often underestimate. The following apply across the region, with local variations.

Get on the approved vendor lists before the tender appears. State-affiliated buyers generally invite suppliers from their registered vendor lists. Aramco and Nigeria's NOGIC Joint Qualification System each run their own registration [49][50]. In ISI's experience, registration takes weeks to months, which is often longer than a tender response window, and a supplier to an EPC contractor usually still needs to be on the project owner's approved vendor list.

Plan for local content scoring. Aramco's IKTVA program, the UAE National In-Country Value certificate used by ADNOC, and Nigeria's content law all affect how suppliers are qualified and evaluated [40][51][52]. ADNOC presented its $55 billion award program as a local supply chain program [14].

Read the procurement rules before you price. In ISI's experience, contracts with government-affiliated buyers are issued on standard terms that are difficult to change after award, so payment terms, liquidated damages and liability caps should be treated as fixed in your commercial model. Saudi Arabia published a revised procurement law on 4 September 2026 that raises direct-purchase and delegation thresholds and allows change orders of up to 20 percent of contract value. It takes effect 120 days after publication [53].

Set up the money flows early. Under Saudi Arabia's 2019 procurement law, which applies until the new law takes effect in early 2027, public tenders require a bid guarantee of 1 to 2 percent and a performance guarantee of 5 percent, issued by a local bank or by a foreign bank through a local bank [54]. The new law keeps the same guarantee levels [53]. In ISI's experience, similar arrangements apply across the region, and a new bank line can take several weeks to arrange, so set it up before you bid.

Check how currency and payments move. Nigeria relaxed repatriation rules for oil companies in March 2026 [38], and Algeria brought imported services into its import authorization program in August 2026 [35]. Confirm the current position with a local bank before you agree payment terms.

Choose and structure local representation carefully. Agency and distributor agreements determine who can bid on your behalf and how easily you can change partner. The UAE's 2022 commercial agencies law, for example, changed how agencies end and how disputes are resolved [55].

An example from Algeria

Recent ISI work in Algeria shows how one rule change affects delivery. Listed imported services now need prior authorization under the Provisional Import Programme [35]. In ISI's experience, the program is filed in half-yearly windows. Approvals are issued case by case and may cover part of the requested amount. A contract signed on 1 March, for example, would miss the first-half window, which closes at the end of February, so four to five months could pass before the local contractor can import, while late-delivery penalties run from signature. In ISI's observation, some national tenders for these services have since been declared unsuccessful, and under the procurement rules of the buyers concerned, a tender that fails twice can be relaunched internationally. Foreign bidders on relaunched tenders should confirm how the authorization requirement applies to them.

What this means for you

Before you bid on any contract in the region, confirm four points: that you are registered with the project owner as well as the contractor; how local content will be scored; which guarantees are required and which bank will issue them; and which party must obtain import and payment approvals, and when. Build the answers into your delivery schedule and price.

7. What to do this quarter

To test your own readiness for any of these markets, the ISI Entry Readiness questionnaire on our website takes about 10 minutes. It covers 20 questions across eight areas, from demand and customers to registration, payment terms and delivery, and shows where to focus first.

Try the Entry Readiness Diagnostic →

About ISI Consultants

ISI Consultants helps Western industrial companies enter and grow in the Middle East and Africa across power and energy, critical minerals and mining, infrastructure, agribusiness and industrial manufacturing. Our principals have more than 30 years of experience in the region, across more than 40 countries, and have supported more than $2.7 billion in contract awards. We work with a network of local partners who handle the regulatory, commercial and relationship work described in this report.